We should have knonwn that COVID's mutation rate was fast enough that vaccines wouldn't work. We didn't. Willfully ignorant.
~ Aristotle Sabouni
Created: 2020-04-25 |
There's some dispute on the Coronavirus mutation rate. The basics are it is an RNA type virus, that's twice as complex and mutates at half the rate of the seasonal flu. Combined, that's an effective mutation rate at 1/4th the Flu. Is that slow enough that we can create vaccines? We aren't sure yet. We think so. But some Chinese researchers dove deeper and found more mutation and outcomes than expected. So need more info. On the other hand, there seems to be evidence in at least limited immunity (plasma/antibody treatment, low re-infection, and study on monkeys). Also there were a few stories about China or Korea finding patients who had been cured that later tested positive. But it is believed that it's just residual RNA fragments that haven't been flushed from the body yet. (Nothing to worry about).
- COVID Monkey Study - 2020.04.17 SARS-CoV-2 study on rhesus macaques seems to show at least limited immunity.
- COVID Reinfection - There was some initial scare mongering about how we wouldn't get immunity because we could be reinfected. China and South Korea had shown a few cases of people that were cured that came back positive in a later test. However, later studies indicated that this was likely just residual RNA fragments (de-activated) that hadn't been fully flushed from the body yet. Never mind.
- COVID Vaccine timeline - Shelter in place only makes sense if you know a vaccine is coming in <6 months. And we didn't know that. It turned out it was in about 10 months. But the costs of the shut-down still way outweighed the benefits, as proven by countries that didn't lock down.
- No immunity ends the shutdown - If COVID exposure doesn't offer immunity, then shelter-in-place while waiting for a vaccine that isn't coming, is a dumb idea. If COVID exposure does offer immunity, then a <0.1% chance of dying isn't a good excuse for destroying the economy and hurting people. Either way, we need to figure out how to live with the disease forever.
🔗 More
| |
| |
🔗 Links
- https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study
- https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html
Tags: COVID COVID/Science