Forcing Factors

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ClimateForcing Factors
ForcingFactors.jpg
What impacts the climate? Almost everything. The Earth's climate is constantly changing due to the following factors.
What impacts the climate? Almost everything. The Earth's climate is constantly changing due to the following factors. Man impacts the weakest two. The greenhouse effect is the weakest part of radiative forcing, CO2 is on the weakest of the greenhouse gasses, Man contributes <3% of the CO2. In Science, everything is in dispute. Only the politicians and fools are sure.
ℹ️ Info          

What impacts the climate? Almost everything. The Earth's climate is constantly changing due to the following factors.

🗒️ Note:
Man impacts the weakest two.
  • The greenhouse effect is the weakest part of radiative forcing
  • CO2 is on the weakest of the greenhouse gasses
  • Man contributes <3% of the CO2
In Science, everything is in dispute. Only the politicians are sure.

IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE:

  • ☀️Solar output
  • 🌎variations in the Earths Orbit (Milankovitch cycles)
  • 🌋Volcanism
  • 🌠Meteorological events
  • 🍽️Plate Tectonics
  • 🌊Ocean Variability
  • 🙍‍♂️Radiative forcing (the Greenhouse Effect is a small part of radiative forcing)
  • 🙍‍♂️Flora and Fauna

Man (🙍‍♂️) only contributes a minuscule amount to the weakest two — and CO2 (⚛️) not only has a diminishing feedback effect, but there's great debate over counter-balancing effects of raising CO2, like: carbon sequestration, cloud albedo, and CO2 increases flora and fauna which increases CO2 scrubbing.

Ask yourself, if the earth wasn't a self-balancing system, then why didn't we cook-off in the last 4.5B years back when we had 10x or 20x the CO2 we have today?

Greenhouse Effect[edit source]

           Main article: Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse-effect.jpg
  • Radiative forcing is one of the weakest of the Forcing Factors impacting the Earth's climate.
  • The Greenhouse Effect is a second weakest part of radiative forcing
  • CO2 is a very small part of the greenhouse effect. How small? Mankind contributes 14Gt of the 22,056,773+ Gt of all greenhouse gasses in our system (about .0004%).

How small? Mankind contributes ≈14Gt of the 22,056,773+ Gt of all greenhouse gasses in our system (about .0004%).

  • Man only contributes a minuscule amount to the weakest two — and CO2 not only has a diminishing feedback effect

Greenhouse effect - understanding scale

Review Climate/Forcing Factors if you have questions.

The greenhouse effect is a second weakest part of radiative forcing, and radiative forcing is one of the weakest of the forcing factors impacting Earth's climate. And CO2 is a very small part of the greenhouse effect. How small?

  • About 90% of our warmth comes from the sun, about 10% from the earth itself.
  • Of that 90% (343W/M^2), about 30% is reflected into space immediately before getting into the atmosphere. 70% goes into our atmosphere.
  • Of that 70%, 50% is absorbed by the earth (plants, ocean, land, etc.), 20% of that light is captured by the atmosphere (greenhouse effect), and 30% goes back into space.

So the entire greenhouse effect is a very weak factor compared to minor fluctuation in something like solar output (which is constantly changing, and something not usually factored at all, into most of our climate models). But polemics can’t blame solar fluctuations or earth’s wobble on man, and demand higher taxes to fix it. So they focus on this minor one instead. The atmosphere is made up of about 77% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 1% water vapor, and .03% CO2. We'll start by ignoring the complexities of non-compounds that don't "count" as a greenhouse gasses even-though they do trap heat and insulate, and just look at the compounds for simplicity -- so we're only paying attention to 1% of the atmosphere to start with. Of that 1%, water vapor (clouds) are responsible for 75% of the remaining "greenhouse effect", and CO2 between 9-20% (14% is the most common agreed upon number), with methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) making up the rest. Man is responsible for far less than 1% of all the CO2 that cycles each year, which is only 14% of the greenhouse compounds, which are only 2% of the gasses in the atmosphere, and all of that combined is the second weakest of the forcing factors on our climate. So the AGW argument is that the Earth survived for 4.5 billion years (and 18x the CO2 concentrations of today), but man’s .0025% increase in the greenhouse effect is going to cause some catastrophic tipping point that will destroy the earth, if you don’t give them your money, and the keys to your car, right now. So they fly corporate jets from Climate event to Climate event to protect us. The point is, most of the greenhouse effect isn't CO2 , and most CO2 isn’t manmade. But you never hear that, because if you knew the truth, you might not be as malleable.

To put actual numbers to that:

  • man contributes about 14 Gt (9-12 billion tons directly, and a few indirectly through secondary effects like deforestation) to the 22,056,773+ Gt of just the greenhouse gasses we're talking about (or about .0004%). That's not even counting all the nitrogen and Oxygen which make up 98% of the atmosphere. And man never put out more than 1 Gt until the 1950's. (The industrial revolution was a non-event for the planet, even if it impacted a few cities that occupy like .00001% of the land mass of the globe).
  • There's approximately 4,000,000 billion tons of H2O in the atmosphere, 18,000,000 billion tons of water vapor in the oceans, another 56,000 billion tons of CO2 locked away in carbon sinks, like soil, earth, plants, sediment and deep ocean.
  • And the real question is carbon scrubbing and the sequestration cycle — how fast does the earth scrub and trap carbon? But those numbers are hardly studied at all. What the models did is assume that scrubbing is a constant at rate it was at pre-1950’s — and not an adaptive system where rain dilutes more CO2 (as CO2 rates go up), or that more plants will grow just because it warms and becomes wetter and has more CO2 for them to breathe. And so on. We know that to be false, but their models don’t factor it in.

Milankovitch cycles[edit source]

           Main article: Milankovitch cycles
Earth Cycles.gif

The Milankovitch cycles are named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovitch who observed/developed/published this in the 1930s. The observation is that the Earth wobbles around it's own axis, and the orbit is not concentric around the Sun (we get closer and further, at different times of the year). These are measured in:

  • eccentricity: whether the Earth is orbiting nearly circular or elongated/elliptical. This cycle is affected by other planets in the solar system and has a period of around 100,000 years.
  • obliquity: Rotational tilt of the Earth. A greater tilt makes the seasons more extreme. The angle of tilt of the earth’s axis changes from 22.1° to 24.5°. This cycle has a period of 41,000 years.
  • The direction of the tilt of the axis changes (precession) on a cycle of 26,000 years.
    • axial precession: the direction in the fixed stars pointed to by the Earth's axis, does change over time (axial precession)
    • apsidal precession: the Earth's elliptical orbit around the Sun rotates.

The combined effect is that proximity to the Sun occurs during different astronomical seasons. Each of these factors has it's own timeline, and together they can combine to cause magnifying or nullifying effects on climate. This cycle has a far, FAR bigger impact to the Climate than CO2.


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👁️ See also

  • Climate - The Climate is always change, the debate is over the cause and consequences. Where there's no debate, there's no science.
  • Climate/CO2 Basics - Frauds pretends that 400 ppm of CO2 tipping point means we're doomed. They ignore we used to have ice ages and 5,000ppm.
  • Climate/Advocates - Science is skepticism. If someone isn't a skeptic, then they're not a scientist: they're a politician or an advocate (zealot).
  • Climate/Consensus - Science is skepticism. If someone isn't a skeptic, then they're not a scientist: they're a politician.
  • Climate History - Historically, CO2 does not correlate well with the climate at all (despite what Al Gore tells you).
  • Climate/Skeptics - Science is skepticism. If someone isn't a skeptic, then they're not a scientist: they're a politician.
  • Hockey Stick - Michael Mann used tricks to remove past warm periods and dupe rubes into thinking this is the warmest period in history.


🔗 More

Climate
The Climate is always change, the debate is over the cause and consequences. Where there's no debate, there's no science.

Climate
The Climate is always change, the debate is over the cause and consequences. Where there's no debate, there's no science.



Tags: Climate Slides  Climate/tab

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