Bad Predictions
From iGeek
Progressives want change, so they need to exaggerate the bad if you don't do what they want, or the good if you do.
~ Aristotle Sabouni
Created: 2022-06-20 |
Plus, conservatives are more cynical and look for ways that things can go wrong, thus negative predictions (about Unintended Consequences) are more likely to be on target. Thus the vast majority of bad predictions come from the left.
- Bad Predictions/Krugman on the Internet - 🔮 "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” ~ Paul Krugman. The smartest guy at the NYT, written in an article for Red Herring magazine (1998), explaining why “Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong". Then proving it.
- Beepocalypse - There was this huge scam (perpetuated by the left) for many years that bees were dying, and it was going to be the end us of all, because bees were so important to the ecosystem. Colony Collapse Disorder was sensationalized as the greatest threat to humanity since Nuclear weapons. A decade later, nothing had happened and most had forgotten the media's sensationalism.
- Cobra Effect - The disastrous outcome in Colonial India. There were too many poisonous snakes, so the Brits offered a bounty on them. So people started breeding them for bounty. The government cancelled the bounty, and the cobras were set free: increasing the total population.
- Earth Day Predictions - To judge how "off" someone likely is in the present, it is a good idea to remember how wrong they were in the past. Here are a few dozen predictions from the first earth day, and you can map how well they fit reality. But if you don't do finger orbits around your ear over these predictions, then I'm doing them while looking at you.
- Global Cooling Scare - Many downplay the Global Cooling craze of the 1970's, but it was a real, large and popular movement based on the "Scientific Consensus" of the day, and was sensationalized by the media. When the temp trends flipped, they flipped too: same cause, same cure -- man is to blame, we need Marxism to save us. So says the Marxists and their flock.
- Malthusian Catastrophe - Robert Malthus basically wrote The Population Bomb in 1798. He did what many chicken little's do: (a) if population keeps growing (b) and our capacity to produce food doesn't then (c) we all starve. Reality is that (b) our capacity to produce food will outgrow population, then (c) our quality of lives will get better.
- Peak Oil Theory - In the mid 50’s M King Hubbert plotted out oil production and said we would peak in the U.S. between 1965-1970, and in the world by 1986, so we needed to give government control to save us. Advances in discovery have resulted in at least 2050 until we expect to supply peak -- assuming no further advancements. Demand peak may already be on the decline, well before we ever consumed all the supply.
- President Trump 2016: Orange is the new black - Some people are shocked, some are not. Normally, we try to learn from the ones that aren't. Just like 1968, 1980, 2000, whenever the Republican wins, it's a huge shock that no one on the left could have foreseen -- especially based on their biased polls, and their media echochambers.
- The Population Bomb - Marxist-sponsored hippie environmentalists re-invented the Malthusian catastrophe as "The Population Bomb". This suicide cult believed that if we don't give the government supreme power to enact compulsory population control, then there would be mass starvation and war by the early 1980s. It didn't happen. But they assure us that Marxism is the only cure for what's coming any day now.
- Tragedy of the commons - We often get dire warnings about Malthusian Catastrophes, Ehrlich's population bombs and how individuals can't be trusted to manage shared interests. We need government to protect us from ourselves. History shows the opposite: individuals form small governments for common interests better than big governments, unless big government stops them.
- Trump and Brexit - 🔮"Calm down. Trump won’t be President – and Britain won’t leave the EU". A twofer in a Headline in the Progressive Rag the UK's New Statesmen (by Ian Leslie), June of 2016. The article elucidated more clearly on how clueless the progressive left is.
- Unintended Consequences - Every action causes a reaction. Some reactions are pleasant surprises, many are negatives, some are counter productive (perverse) and make the problem worse. Since consequences matter more than intentions, we have a social obligation to plan for them (and avoid them).
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Tags: Progressivism Unintended Consequences
